David L. Phillips is currently Director of the Program on Peace-building and Rights at Columbia University’s Institute for the Study of Human Rights. Phillips has worked as a senior adviser to the United Nations Secretariat and as a foreign affairs expert and senior adviser to the U.S. Department of State.
Gulan Media interviewed Phillips in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan to discuss the foreign policy approach of the Trump administration, Iraq-Kurdistan relations, and the impact of Kurdish unity on US security interests.
What is your expectation about the policy approach of the Trump administration regarding the Kurdistan region?
Nobody knows what to expect from the Trump administration. President Donald J. Trump has no track record with Kurdish issues and he does not have much history in the Middle East. During the campaign, Trump acknowledged that Peshmerga are capable fighters. He pledged to destroy ISIS in Iraq and Syria and to recapture Mosul and Raqqa. At this point, we do not know what role Peshmerga will play in the future. Nor do we know what role is envisioned for the People’s Protection Units (YPG) in Rojava. An effective security strategy starts with recognition that Kurds are America’s best and only friends in this region.
But what about Trump’s staff, don’t you expect that they will provide recommendations or more informed advice for Mr. Trump regarding Kurdistan region?
It is too soon to tell. There are many vacant posts. The Trump administration has not finalized a policy. US officials need time to consider conditions in Kurdistan and make well-informed decisions based on US national interests. The Trump administration has emphasized working with local fighters. The most proven local fighters are Peshmerga in Kurdistan and the YPG in Syria. The US should expand its cooperation with Peshmerga and the YPG.
Before Mr. Trump came to power, a Kurdish delegation led by Mr. Masroor Barazani visited Washington. Don’t you think it is imperative that another Kurdish delegation visit Washington to discuss the Kurdistan situation?
KRG officials should wait until the Trump administration is ready to receive them. It has been chaotic since Trump became President. There is no clearly defined policy towards Iraq or towards Kurdistan. There is no clearly defined strategy for defeating ISIS in Iraq or Syria. It would be a mistake for KRG officials to rush to Washington, when Trump’s team has not been assembled and the policy is still fluid. That being said, strategic patience has its limits. The KRG should not wait too long.
In a previous interview with our Magazine you emphasized that the US should pursue a reality- based approach, can you elaborate on that?
A reality-based approach involves recognition that Iraq no longer exists. Iraq is a proxy of Iran. In contrast, Kurdistan is pro-western. Kurds and Americans share values. When the US recognizes this reality, it can adjust its cooperation accordingly.
Also in that interview you emphasized that the Kurds should have a sense of urgency in pushing for independence, and they should waste no more time. Do you have same recommendation for the Kurds this time?
The KRG must show it is serious about a friendly divorce from Baghdad. It must intensify reforms, preparing for self-rule. Independence is not given. It is earned. Maybe after meeting US officials at the recent Munich Security Conference, the KRG will have additional information to put discussions on a fast track. Kurdish unity is imperative to create conditions for Kurdistan’s independence.
In your report about state-building in Iraqi Kurdistan you outlined a roadmap for Kurdistan to pursue in order to achieve independence, have you seen any progress in undertaking the much-needed structural reform in Kurdistan?
There has been some structural reform. The economy has stabilized. The PUK is finally taking steps to resolve internal divisions and set-up a leadership committee. Kurds will unite behind a common vision for independence. President Barzani cannot wait until ISIS is defeated. He needs to push forward more proactively, and the KRG must demonstrate it is ready for self-rule by intensifying reforms.
In terms of independence, how can the Kurds present a compelling and convincing case for statehood?
The Kurds need to demonstrate unity, which starts with PUK resolving its internal differences and establishing a leadership committee that is capable of managing its affairs. Then the PUK and the KDP must come together and develop a shared vision for state-building and political transition. We have talked about Kurdish unity, the unity within the PUK and the unity between the PUK and KDP, but Kurdish unity also involves regional cooperation. Kurds in Syria and Kurds in Iraqi Kurdistan must work together. Unity also involves regional cooperation.
You have mentioned that Mr. Trump has pledged to defeat ISIS, but don’t you think that this goal is inextricably linked to political settlement after destroying ISIS militarily?
The battle for Mosul is underway. It will be bloody, but ISIS will eventually be defeated. Beyond Mosul, a political plan is needed to defeat Islamism in Iraq and prevent ISIS from morphing into a new, more murderous movement. The Trump administration should facilitate the deconstruction of Iraq, as Iraqis divide the country into three parts.
Regarding the viability of an independent Kurdistan, some has casted doubt on the sustainability of this state and argue that it will be surrounded by hostile neighbors and susceptible to blockade, what do you make about that?
Independence will not come easily. Sacrifice is required. There may be blockades or obstacles imposed by neighboring countries. Nonetheless, the KRG should move forward by conducting a referendum, asserting its national sovereignty, and declaring statehood. Vision and political leadership are needed.
Do you believe that the attempts to reach a settlement between Kurdistan and central government have reached a dead end? Are there irreconcilable differences and insurmountable disagreements? Should Kurdistan choose its own path?
There are deep differences with the Iraqi government, but that does not mean discussions are at a dead end. The independence of Iraqi Kurdistan needs to be negotiated through political dialogue. If the KRG moves abruptly towards independence without negotiations, it will provoke a reaction from Baghdad, detrimental to the goal.
What about the possible reaction of Iran, which declared its opposition of any move in that direction?
Kurdistan will surely face opposition from Iran, Turkey and Baghdad. But its neighbors do not have a veto. President Barzani needs to do what is in the interest of his people. Taking orders from other capitals does not serve Kurdistan’s interests.
To what extent does the establishment of an independent Kurdish state serve the geopolitical interests of the USA in this region?
Iraqi Kurdistan can become the eastern flank of NATO, given Turkey’s uncertainty as an ally. If Turkey denies access to Incirlik Air Force Base, the US can use facilities in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Another counter argument for creating an independent Kurdistan is that the establishment of this state will lead to more instability and further insecurity in this region. What is your perspective in this regard?
I think it will actually create more stability and a more predictable environment. An independent Iraqi Kurdistan would be a good friend and loyal ally of the United States.
But why did the Obama administration consistently insisted on the “one Iraq” policy?
The Obama administration was wrong. It was too timid and it lacked vision. It managed relations instead of shaping them. Now the US needs to proactively shape events and deepen cooperation with Kurdistan.
There is a sense in Kurdistan that after defeating ISIS, the popular mobilization units will pose a real threat to the Kurds. What is your perspective?
The popular mobilization units do represent a real threat. We should not underestimate their ability or willingness to undermine Kurdistan’s progress. At the same time, Kurdistan cannot be held hostage by Iran. The KRG needs to negotiate with Iran, based on a clear vision and plan for moving toward independence. Iran is nervous about the Trump administration. It wants to draw Kurdistan out of America’s sphere of influence.
We have heard from the press and media outlets that after meeting with President Barzani, both the vice president and secretary of defense of United States have expressed their support for Kurdistan. What is your opinion about that?
What is meant by “support Kurdistan”? US officials should be judged by what they do not what they say. The KRG can help the US administration by clearly defining its goals and areas where it wants support such as the provision of heavy and offensive weapons, more subsidies for Peshmerga salaries, additional medical facilities for wounded warriors, and political support when the KRG organizes a referendum and declares independence.
You have talked about Iran and recently we have witnessed an escalation of tension between USA and Iran. Can we expect that the Trump administration is going to aggressively contain Iran?
You can count on the Trump administration to aggressively monitor Iran, to make sure Tehran is in compliance with commitments in the nuclear agreement. Let’s hope that the US is not looking for a fight with Iran, but it will hold Iran accountable if it violates agreements or supports terrorism.
The occurrence of what event and development accelerates the declarations of independence of Kurdistan?
Simply, the decision to go for it. The KRG should be deliberate, but it cannot reflect too long or the widow of opportunity will close. The Obama administration was overly deliberative and missed opportunities. Now it is the time for decisive action and bold leadership.
Click here to access the interview at Gulan Media.
